Iran has resumed production of some of its drones during a six-week ceasefire that began in early April. This is a sign of the rapid rebuilding of some of Iran's military capabilities damaged by the US-Israeli strikes. CNN reported the information on Thursday (May 21) citing sources.
Four sources told CNN that U.S. intelligence is indicating that Iran's military is rebuilding much faster than initially estimated.
According to four sources familiar with the intelligence, the rebuilding of military capabilities, including the replacement of missile bases, launchers and critical weapons systems production capacity destroyed in the current conflict, means that if President Donald Trump resumes the bombing, Iran will remain a significant threat to regional allies. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have weakened Iran's military in the long run.
Although the timeline for resuming production of various weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully rebuild its drone strike capability in as little as six months.
“Iran has exceeded all the deadlines given by the intelligence community for reconstruction,” a US official said.
Drone strikes are a particular concern for regional allies. If conflict resumes, Iran could increase its missile production capacity by launching more drones to continue shelling Israel and the Gulf states.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to resume military operations against Iran if the two countries fail to reach an agreement to end the war. He also said publicly on Tuesday that he was only an hour away from resuming the bombing, meaning those military capabilities could come in handy.
Iran has been able to rebuild much faster than expected, a source told CNN, thanks to a combination of factors ranging from support from Russia and China to not being able to inflict as much damage as the US and Israel had hoped. For example, two sources familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments told CNN that China continued to supply Iran with missile-making materials during the conflict, although that has likely decreased due to the ongoing U.S. embargo.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS last week that China was supplying Iran with 'missile-making materials'. But he refused to give any details about it.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun denied the allegations at a press conference, calling them 'not based on reality'.
Meanwhile, according to recent US intelligence assessments, Iran still maintains ballistic missile, drone strike and anti-aircraft capabilities, despite suffering serious losses in US-Israeli strikes. This means that rapid restructuring of military production capacity is not starting from scratch.
Damage to Iran's defense industrial base likely set back its ability to rebuild by months, not years, a source familiar with recent US intelligence assessments told CNN. Parts of Iran's defense industrial base are still intact, which could further accelerate the timeline for rebuilding certain capabilities.
